THE SPORTS ADVISORS
San Antonio (33-15, 23-23-2 ATS) at Boston (42-10, 29-23 ATS)
The defending NBA champion Celtics, winners of 13 of their last 14 games, welcome the Spurs to TD Banknorth Garden for a nationally televised non-conference clash.
Boston went to Madison Square Garden on Friday and dropped New York 110-100 as a 6½-point chalk, bouncing back from Thursday’ 110-109 overtime home loss to the Lakers, which ended the squads’ 12-game SU run. The Celtics, who are 10-4 ATS during their 13-1 SU spree, have scored in triple digits in four straight games and six of the last seven. Also, they’ve rung up 105.8 points per game on the home parquet this season, more than four points above their overall season average, and they’ve outscored opponents by nearly 13 ppg at home (93.0).
San Antonio, which is in the midst of an eight-game road trip, has been idle since Tuesday, when coach Gregg Popovich rested his three biggest stars – Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan – following a 110-105 overtime win at Golden State the previous night. The Spurs played well even without the Big Three, but still fell 104-96 to end a four-game winning streak, though they still covered as an 11½-point underdog to move to 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games (3-0-1 ATS on the road). For the season, San Antonio has averaged 97.6 ppg and allowed about a three-pointer less at 94.5, but in the past five games, the Spurs have leaped to 106.4 ppg while allowing 101.2.
Boston is on a 4-0 ATS run (3-1 SU) in this rivalry – all from the underdog role – following a 6-0 SU and ATS run by San Antonio. The Celtics took both meetings last season, including a 98-90 win in February as a 2½-point home pup.
The Celtics are on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 9-3 overall, 13-5 at ome, 7-1 after an ATS win, 5-1 against winning teams, 10-2 against the Southwest Division, 11-4 on Sunday and 24-11 against the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Spurs are on ATS runs of 7-3-1 on the highway, 3-1 as a ‘dog of more than four points. 4-0 against winning teams and 4-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record, but they are also on ATS skids of 1-5-1 against the Atlantic Division, 3-9-1 against the East and 3-8-1 after a spread-cover.
The over for Boston is on rolls of 4-0 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-0 against the Western Conference, 11-5 against the Southwest Division and 5-1 following a SU win, and the over for San Antonio is on runs of 5-0 overall and 4-0 on the road. But the under for the Spurs is on stretches of 4-0 against the Eastern Conference, 9-2-1 with San Antonio going on three or more days’ rest and 5-2 on Sunday, and in this rivalry, the under is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings between these teams in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
L.A. Lakers (40-9, 26-23 ATS) at Cleveland (39-9, 32-16 ATS)
The Lakers bring the league’s best record into Quicken Loans Arena as they look to cap a perfect six-game Eastern Conference road trip when they take on the Cavaliers, who remain unbeaten at home this season, in the day’s marquee matchup.
Los Angeles squeaked past Boston 110-109 in overtime Thursday night as a seven-point road underdog, moving to 5-0 SU and ATS on their current six-game road swing. The Lakers have been filling it up throughout the road trip, averaging an eye-popping 119.6 ppg, but they’re also allowing 110.0 ppg during this five-game span.
Cleveland, sporting a perfect 23-0 SU home record and the league’s best spread-covering mark at 32-16 overall, held off New York 107-102 Wednesday night for its fourth straight win, but they failed to cover as a 5½-point road chalk, ending a three-game ATS uptick. The Cavs are averaging 102.5 ppg during their four-game run, outscoring opponents by more than 12 ppg (90.0), and at home this season, they are winning by an average of 16 ppg (105-89), helping them to an 18-5 ATS mark in their building.
Los Angeles ripped Cleveland 105-88 last month as a five-point home favorite, ending a 5-0 SU and 4-0 ATS roll by the Cavs in this rivalry. Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes at Quicken Loans Arena, including last year’s 94-90 victory as a two-point home ‘dog.
The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the Central Division, but they are otherwise on a bevy of ATS hot streaks, including 7-0 after putting up more than 100 points, 4-0 on two days’ rest, 5-0 on the road against teams with a winning home mark, 5-1 against winning teams and 5-1 against the Eastern Conference. Also, L.A. is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season.
The Cavaliers are also on several pointspread sprees, including 37-16 overall, 21-5 at home going back to last year’s playoffs, 6-0 when playing on three or more days’ rest, 13-4 against the West, 12-4 against teams with a win percentage above .600 and 35-17 after an ATS setback.
The over for Los Angeles is on surges of 6-0 overall, 8-0 on the highway, 5-0 against the Eastern Conference, 5-0 after scoring 100 points or more and 22-8 following a SU win. On the flip side, the under for Cleveland is on stretches of 5-1 against winning teams, 5-1 with the Cavs going on three or more days’ rest, 36-16 on Sunday and 19-9 after a SU win.
Finally, the total has stayed low in five of the last six contests in this rivalry and each of the last four meetings in Cleveland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
Phoenix (27-21, 16-29-2 ATS) at Detroit (27-21, 20-28 ATS)
Two teams struggling to find some consistency square off when the Suns travel to the Motor City for a meeting with the Pistons at the Palace.
Phoenix dropped Golden State 115-105 Friday night, getting a push as a 10-point home chalk, but the Suns have cashed just once in their last five games and are on a 4-6 SU and 3-6-1 ATS skid in their last 10. Phoenix’s high-octane offense has put up 114.2 ppg in its last five – more than nine points over its season average of 104.9 – but the Suns are also giving it up on the defensive end, allowing 109.2 ppg in the last five.
Detroit went to Milwaukee on Saturday and pulled out a 126-121 overtime victory over the Bucks, barely cashing as a 4½-point favorite. Despite last night’s win, the Pistons are mired in a 5-9 SU and 4-10 ATS freefall. Detroit is also just 1-4 SU (0-5 ATS) in its last five at the Palace, getting outscored by eight points per contest (97-89). For the season, the Pistons are just 7-18 ATS on their court.
Phoenix ripped Detroit 104-86 in November as a two-point home favorite, halting a 3-0 SU and ATS run by the Pistons in this series. Detroit is still 9-2 ATS in the last 11 clashes, including 4-1 ATS in the last five at home. The favorite is on a 5-2 ATS run when these teams hook up, and the road team has covered in 12 of the last 17 meetings.
The Suns are on ATS slides of 8-21-2 overall, 2-6-1 on the highway, 2-8-1 against the Eastern Conference, 1-4 against winning teams, 2-7-2 when going on one day’s rest and 1-6 as a single-digit underdog. Likewise, the Pistons are on pointspread purges of 0-7 against winning teams, 1-10 on Sunday and 2-5 against the Western Conference.
The over is on a 5-2 run in this rivalry, and the over for Phoenix is on rolls of 12-4 against the Central Division and 5-2 on the road. But the under is 7-3 in the Suns’ last 10 games against the East. Furthermore, the under for Detroit is on streaks of 10-5-1 overall, 12-2 on Sunday, 6-2-1 against the West and 20-8-1 playing on back-to-back days.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(12) Purdue (17-5, 9-9 ATS) at (23) Illinois (18-5, 11-7-1 ATS)
Purdue, looking to get back on track after having its six-game win streak snapped, travels to Assembly Hall to face Illinois in a battle of ranked Big Ten teams.
The Boilermakers lost to Ohio State 80-72 in overtime Tuesday night as a two-point road chalk for their first loss in nearly a month, ending a 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS surge. During its win streak, Purdue held three opponents under 54 points, including a 67-49 home rout of Michigan last Saturday. Despite the setback in Columbus, the Boilermakers are still averaging 69.6 points on 49.2 percent shooting (44.9 percent from 3-point range) over their last five games, while allowing 61.4 ppg on 40.5 percent shooting.
The Fighting Illini have been up and down lately, splitting their last six starts, including dropping two of their last three. On Thursday, Illinois went to Wisconsin and got bounced 63-50 as a four-point road pup for their third straight ATS setback. At home, though, Illinois is 5-0 SU (3-1-1 ATS) in conference play this season, with three double-digit wins and an average winning margin of 15.8 ppg.
Illinois has won and covered in the last two meetings in this rivalry, both in overtime and both on the road, including a 71-67 victory Dec. 30 as an eight-point pup. However, Purdue is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 head-to-head clashes.
The Boilermakers are on ATS rolls of 4-1 overall, 13-6-1 on the road, 4-1 against teams with a winning record, 19-7-1 in the Big Ten and 5-2 after a non-cover, and they’ve won both their games as an underdog this season. The Illini sport positive ATS streaks of 12-4-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 4-1 after a SU loss, 5-2 after an ATS setback and 5-1-1 as a single-digit chalk, but they are also 0-4 ATS in their last four Sunday games and 1-7 ATS in their last eight at home against teams with a winning road record.
The over for Purdue is on stretches of 5-1 overall (all in the Big Ten), 5-0 on the road and 10-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record. The over is also 4-0 in Illinois’ last four against winning teams, and the total has gone high in each of the last four clashes in this rivalry. However, the under for the Illini is on runs of 6-1 overall (all in Big Ten play), 5-1 at home, 5-1 after a SU loss and 20-8-1 on Sunday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Boston College (18-6, 11-8 ATS) at (7) Wake Forest (17-3, 9-7 ATS)
Wake Forest, reeling from a pair of upset road losses, returns to LJVM Coliseum aiming to get back on track against surging Boston College.
Coming off a 76-74 loss at Georgia Tech as an eight-point chalk last Saturday, the Demon Deacons were humiliated Wednesday at Miami, losing 79-52 laying 2½ points, and they’re now 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four games. For the season, Wake has averaged a healthy 81.4 ppg and allowed 67.7, but in the past five games, the Deacons have put up 69.0 ppg while allowing 73.8.
The Eagles have ripped off five straight victories (4-1 ATS), all in ACC play, including an 80-70 win at Virginia on Wednesday as a one-point favorite, the team’s third consecutive SU and ATS conference road win. In its last five contests, B.C. has averaged 76.4 ppg and allowed 69.4 ppg – both exactly on its season averages – and the Eagles have outshot those five opponents by more than five percentage points (45.7-40.2).
Boston College is 4-1 SU and ATS in this short rivalry that began in 2006 when the Eagles joined the ACC, but Wake Forest’s victory and spread-cover came in an 83-63 rout last month as a three-point road chalk. In fact, the favorite has won and cashed in all five series meetings.
The Demon Deacons are on ATS upticks of 15-7-2 at home, 8-0 at home against teams with a winning road record, 4-0 after a SU loss of more than 20 points, 8-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600 and 5-2 on Sunday, but they’re 2-6 ATS as a favorite of less than 20 points. Likewise, the Eagles are on spread-covering sprees of 4-1 on the highway, 5-1 on the road against teams with a winning home mark, 6-2 after a SU win and 4-2 as an underdog this year.
The under is 10-4 in Wake’s last 14 games at home versus teams with a winning road record, but the over is 4-1 in the Deacons’ last five Sunday outings. In addition, the over for Boston College is on runs of 4-1-1 overall, 4-1-1 in roadies and 17-5-1 after a SU win. Lastly, three of the last four series meetings in this rivalry have gone over the total, the one exception being last month’s clash at B.C.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WAKE FOREST
(22) Washington (16-6, 12-8 ATS) at Stanford (14-6, 14-5 ATS)
Washington gears up for its fourth straight Pac-10 road game when it travels to Maples Pavilion to take on Stanford.
The Huskies tumbled at California 86-71 Thursday night as a one-point road chalk, and they’ve now followed up a four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS) by going 1-2 SU and ATS in their last three contests. Washington, which has averaged 79.6 ppg this season, continues to score a ton of points, averaging 83.2 per game in its last five outings. But the Huskies have given up 82.2 ppg in that stretch, more than 12 points higher than their season average.
Stanford topped Washington State 65-54 Thursday night as a 4½-point home chalk to end a three-game slide (1-2 ATS). The Cardinal have averaged 73.8 ppg on the year, but they’ve failed to get out of the 60s in their last four outings, averaging 64.8 ppg while allowing 74.5 – mostly due to last Saturday’s 97-63 blowout loss at UCLA. In the past five games, Stanford is shooting 46.0 percent from the floor (38.0 from 3-point range), but their opponents are hitting at a 53.8 percent clip, including a whopping 51.7 percent from long distance.
Stanford is 2-1 SU and ATS in the last three meetings in this rivalry, losing 84-83 last month in Seattle but getting the cash as a 6½-point road ‘dog. The underdog is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 clashes, and the road team is on a 4-1 ATS run.
The Huskies are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against winning teams, but they still carry positive pointspread trends of 5-2 on the road, 5-0 after a SU loss, 6-1 after a non-cover and 7-3 on the highway against teams with a winning home record. The Cardinal are on nothing but positive ATS streaks, including 14-4 overall, 6-1 against winning teams, 4-1 at home, 7-2 in the Pac-10, 9-3 after a SU win, 12-4 after a spread-cover and 11-4 on Sunday.
The over for Washington is on tears of 9-0 overall, 5-0 on the road, 16-5 in the Pac-10 and 7-3 after a SU loss, and the over is 15-6 in Stanford’s last 21 Pac-10 tilts. However, the under for the Cardinal is on runs of 4-1 at home, 6-2 on Sunday and 9-3 against winning teams. Finally, the total has stayed low in nine of the last 12 meetings in this rivalry, though the last two have topped the posted price, including last month’s meeting in Seattle.
ATS ADVANTAGE: STANFORD
